The UK is likely to experience a period of excessive generation in the coming decade, meaning the chances of the ‘lights going off’ are very slim. This is according to research from Bloomberg Energy Finance which says low levels of demand from industry following the recession in 2008 will be outstripped by new generation coming online.
Despite an expected increase in demand come 2015 as industry recovers and around 20GW of old generation closing by 2016, Bloomberg think this will be offset by around 30GW of capacity due to come online by 2016.
This means old coal, oil and nuclear plants should be able to retire during the economic downturn and the UK should avoid black-outs, which many experts had been predicting.
Bloomberg expects most of this new generational capacity to come in the form of renewables, extended nuclear plants and a dash for gas which could see up to 15GW installed up until 2016.
However, the new study predicts Carbon Capture and Storage won’t have much success in the coming years due to its immaturity. This also spells bad news for unabated coal, which Bloomberg says “faces the most challenging future” as the rising carbon floor price will “tighten the noose around the neck of coal generators.”