The peak margin on the power system looks “very healthy” this morning, currently at around 17GW, according to the daily market report from npower.
Although wind generation has dropped to just 0.7GW, it is expected to pick up, with a peak of more than 5GW expected tomorrow, Client Portfolio Manager Sarah Marshall (pictured) said.
Generation from Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) power plants has also increased, producing just below 13GW.
The gas system however is still “undersupplied” this morning, with the line pack forecast to close around nine million cubic meters (mcm) “short”. It comes as flows from both the BBL and Langeled pipelines have reduced to 18mcm and 22mcm, Ms Marshall said.
She added: “The prompt and near curve prices are higher on the back of this and also risk premiums continue to be built in due to the situation between Russia and Ukraine – with Vladimir Putin announcing yesterday that Russia could cut flows to Ukraine following unpaid gas bills.”
Looking at the curve, Ms Marshall said: “We continue to see strength due to the situation in Russia along with stronger carbon and a weaker Pound against the Euro.”
Oil however has seen “a touch of weakness” this morning, dropping to $107.3 a barrel.
“The weakness comes as there’s expectations of increased supply from Libya however losses are capped due to the Russian situation”, she added.