US shale exports are “dead in the water” says a leading analyst.
Deborah Lawrence from the Energy Policy Forum not only said shale exports were history, she also predicted US shale production will peak between 2018 and 2020.
The pro-sustainability financial analyst, also said US shale reserves have been “vastly overestimated” by pro-fracking companies looking to justify loans for commercial development.
Ms Lawrence said: “What we know is that there’s been probably considerable money borrowed on shales that either was borrowed based on assets that don’t exist or will never be commercially viable to extract.”
By contrast she claimed the solar industry in America was entering a boom time, with solar stocks out performing oil and gas.
“I’m actually one of the most optimistic people out there on the energy markets, because I think we are truly on the cusp of a new energy paradigm. I think there are dynamics occurring that are going to create an environment for probably the greatest wealth creation you or I will ever see.. [in renewables].”
Her views were echoed by Charlie Blanchard of Bloomberg New Energy Finance: “We don’t think that Pennsylvania gas makes it to Miami, much less Tokyo. There’s really only enough of it to supply the eastern US. There’s not so much of it that we can export it everywhere.”
They were both speaking at a conference at New York University sponsored by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.