The UK’s peak power margins are “looking healthy” at just under 12GW today.
CCGT generation has increased to 21GW, adding to the gas demand which is above seasonal normal levels and coal is also up to 10GW, npower’s daily market report states.
“This is as we see wind drop off to a touch over 1GW and wind forecast isn’t much higher so we are likely to see the less efficient generators staying online throughout the day,” according to Sam Hill from the Optimisation Desk.
The gas system is set to be oversupplied this morning, with the current linepack forecast at just over 12mcm long.
Demand is higher than normal for this time of year; “this is as we see a revision to temperatures which are set to be colder over the weekend and into the back end of next week”, Mr Hill added.
LNG send-out from South Hook is back up at 43mcm.
“Although no set date has been given, at some point US LNG is set to bulldoze into the European market. This is likely to displace coal, which would be in line with European carbon reduction targets, but would also potentially threaten Russian gas. To combat this we may see Russia up flows to Europe to drive out the US LNG, the potential increase to supply would be adding to any bearish sentiment,” the report stated.
Oil has “dropped off a bit but is staying reasonably flat” and is currently trading at $30.46/Bbl (£21/Bbl).
Mr Hill went on: “Elsewhere as mentioned the pound has dropped off again currently valued against the euro at €1.276. This may be seen ahead as the Brexit bandwagon gathers pace – with some officials who have not been named form other European countries discussing copycat demands.”