The UK gas system linepack is forecast to be 22mcm short, according to npower’s daily market report.
This is caused by unplanned cuts in the Kvitebjorn gas field and another unnamed field which have reduced flows from Norway. Power and gas contracts today are firmer on last night’s close as a result.
Consequently, Langeled is down to flows of 22mcm with a reduction at the St Fergus terminal and South Hook LNG send-out is at 13mcm with three tankers on the horizon.
Oil prices are rising but still below the $50/bbl (£35.22/bbl) mark.
Sam Hill from the Optimization Desk said: “Temperatures for the UK are due to dip below seasonal averages at the weekend and are likely to pick up towards the end of the month. Demand forecasts are roughly in line with forecasts, any increases in renewable power generation will see demand dropping from gas-fired power which could lengthen the gas system.
“Peak power margins for today are just over 10GW, with wind generation out-turning lower than forecasts and has seen CCGT pick up to 19GW, making up 56% of the generation stack. Coal is at 8% with nuclear at 21%.”
US crude inventory announcements later today will see further price movement. Stockpiles are expected to rise with the recently increased rig count in the USA. Output has increased as oil crept over the $50/bbl mark, but it is now trading at $49.29/bbl.