The sun is still up this morning. I’ve had breakfast and the traffic was flowing.
Brexit is the biggest political moment of my life but is it the end of the world as so many have predicted? No.
Already we are receiving press statements from the energy sector, analysts, lawyers and financial experts. All saying the same thing – there will be short term pain but no chance the lights will go off.
Cost and security – they are the two main things that matter. What about the third major area? Decarbonisation? And more importantly the fourth that impacts on all the others…investment?
My call is there will be no issues in this.
Why now would France (EDF, ENGIE), Germany (E.ON, RWE), Spain (ScottishPower), Denmark (DONG) all decide to pull the plug on the fifth biggest economy in the world?
And as for the biggest international player of all? We know the Chinese won’t care who they trade with, we’ve been working on deals with them for the energy sector for years. Are they really going to let all that go?
In some ways Brexit may prove the right signal to allow investment as at least there is a direction of travel.
As for decarbonisation, we are on the path as the UK, yes there are European targets but as a nation state we’ve set out to do more than our continental cousins. I doubt we will deviate from the long term goals.
There’s definitely going to be a period of uncertainty in the short term, there was after all the big events in my life, Black Thursday, the collapse of the ERM, 9/11 and the 2008 crash.
Markets are like people, they get spooked by the new and uncertain but in the end we adjust.
My son is taking A levels in history and today is one that will be written large for the students of the future.
Brexit is a challenge and an opportunity but one thing is for certain, the lights will stay on while we work out what we are doing.