This week has seen planned maintenance on the UKCS, which has seriously restricted gas flows into the UK, according to Inenco’s Y Report.
Langeled flows have also reduced due to one of the biggest contributing fields reaching its quota for this year. Going forward Langeled flows will continue to diminish.
LNG flows have been sparse due to increased demand from Egypt and Jordan, resulting in Qatari gas being redirected there rather than to the UK and Europe.
Energy Trader Dorian Lucas states wind forecast is high at around 7GW, dropping to a low forecast of 2GW in the week.
Hinkley Point B7 is generating again following weekend maintenance and will cover the loss in wind generation.
In oil, OPEC members are calling for a production freeze, slightly raising prices. The Y Report suggests a freeze actually happening is quite unlikely.
Oil has traded away from the four month lows seen last week, up towards $45/bbl (£34.7/bbl) and the view going forward is that there is potentially a bit more upside over the short term.
Mr Lucas said: “Starting with customers with fixed price contracts, this recent downturn in prices is giving you renewed opportunity to enter the market and secure a better price.
“Potentially look at fixing at 24-36 months, and that is linked to the fact that typically we’d see a risk premium built into forward seasons, so Year 1 would be more expensive than the current year, year 2 would be more expensive than year 2.
“We are not currently seeing that risk premium being built into prices so if you’re fixed for 3 years you’re getting a roughly level price across the 3 year period.”