The UK gas system is forecast to close 7mcm short, according to npower’s daily market report.
This is due to an increase in demand for gas-fired generation coupled with a reduction to Dutch BBL (Balgzand Bacton Line) imports.
The short system is supporting prices which are higher than last night’s close. A pick-up in oil value is also backing this.
Sam Hill from the Optimisation Desk said: “Yesterday afternoon EDF announced, following nuclear safety inspections, a further five sites in France will be shut down to undergo maintenance.
“The capacity impact of this is just above 5GW. The UK relies on French nuclear power during peak periods, with prices rising on the continent peak prices shot up in the UK, in order to incentivise power imports across the channel. This in turn has supported basleoad prices.”
On the power system, CCGT generation is above 20GW, making up 53% of the stack.
Wind is generating below 4GW but is forecast to drop later today.
Coal-fired generation is under 3GW, also making up for the lack of French interconnector imports. The Dutch one is importing near capacity.
Mr Hill added: “Oil prices have continued to steadily climb on the back of the OPEC production freeze announcements. US oil inventory data out later this afternoon may see stockpiles rising, following an increase in drilling activity in the states. Oil is trading at $52.23/bbl (£42.3/bbl).
The pound is value at €1.11.
Market trends and the effects of Brexit will form part of the discussions at the Energy Live 2016 conference on November 3rd in London. Limited free tickets available for energy end users and university students.