The Haven Power Market Report is a weekly pricing report that analyses and explains energy market fluctuations over the past 7 days.
It’s particularly relevant if you’re buying electricity flexibly, or about to sign or renew a fixed electricity contract. Getting these decisions right can reduce your vulnerability to price-peaks in the wholesale market and save you money.
For a more in-depth analysis from the company’s Flex & Portfolio Management team, speak to Haven Power directly on 01473 707755 quoting reference HP250.
The annual power graph shows how the value of an annual power contract changes over time. The annual contract value is the average of the front two seasons, currently Summer 18 and Winter 18.
Last week, the generally bearish behaviour of fuels pushed UK wholesale electricity prices downwards. The forecasts of milder weather also reduced the pressure on nearer dated winter products. In contrast, National Balancing Point (NBP) gas increased in value towards the end of the week. This counteracted some of the power curve’s losses from the earlier part of the week.
Secure and Promote* (Season +1, +2, +3, +4) baseload contracts lost on average £0.55/MWh over the course of last week. Once again, the weakness of the NBP market during most of the week was the primary driver of the wholesale curve. Coal prices showed some strength, but failed to provide any significant support to the power curve. System under-supply and upcoming maintenance resulted in stronger trading – and higher prices – on the British gas market on Friday. Gas gains were mirrored by their respective contracts on the power curve, with the near curve experiencing the most notable increases. Brent crude oil may have provided some guidance too, as prices on the index picked up to over $63.50 per barrel. This movement was bolstered by an agreement between OPEC and Russia to extend production cuts past the previous expiration date of March 2018 to the end of 2018.
Wind output was the main driver of day-ahead baseload prices last week. The average value was £53.81/MWh, the maximum £55.40/MWh and the minimum £51.65/MWh – all measures were up on the previous week. As the graph shows, the day-ahead prices increased during the seven days as their significant influencer, wind output, decreased throughout the week.
Single cashout prices over the week averaged £55.42/MWh, reaching a maximum of £114.81/MWh on 3rd December during settlement period 34 (16:30-17:00). In this period, National Grid paid relatively expensive pumped storage to generate and help balance the system. If the pumped storage site is already primed, it’s attractive to National Grid due to its flexibility and ability to reach full generation load in a matter of minutes or seconds. The minimum system price last week was during settlement period 4 (01:30-02:00) on 27th November, coinciding with one of the week’s windiest periods.
Renewables and other
Wind generation was relatively strong for the majority of last week, with output over 8GW before it tailed off towards the end of the week. This had a direct impact on day-ahead prices, as more expensive generation occurred on these days to make up for the deficit left by low levels of wind. The highest wind output was 11.49GW on 27th November and the lowest levels were on Sunday 3rd December, when still conditions only produced 3.2GW. Average wind output over the week was 7.67GW.
*For more information about Secure and Promote, please consult this Ofgem web page.
Although all reasonable efforts have been made to verify the information in this report and provide the highest possible accuracy, no warranty, express or implied, is given by Haven Power Limited in respect of this information. Furthermore, the provision of this report does not constitute advice of any kind and should not be taken as the basis for any commercial or financial decisions. Any such decision should be made on the basis of your own records, knowledge and perception of power market data, supplemented with appropriate independent expert advice when required.
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