A quarter of the world’s oil and gas refining capacity could be forced to close by 2035.

That’s according to a new analysis by Carbon Tracker, which suggests if oil demand fell in line with the International Energy Agency’s scenario to limit warming by 2⁰C, it would squeeze profit margins and drive the least profitable refineries out of business.

This could see refinery earnings and asset values both halving by 2035.

The modelling suggests Total and Eni are the most exposed major oil firms, risking up to an 80% fall in earnings from their refineries by 2035.

Shell and Chevron risk up to a 70% drop in profits and ExxonMobil and BP face as much as a 50% decline.

Alan Gelder, Vice President of Research at Wood Mackenzie, which helped compile the report, said: “The consequences of achieving a 2˚C world are far more detrimental to the refining sector than the upstream sector.”

The UK’s remaining petroleum reserves could last for at least 20 more years.