The Haven Power Market Report

Week 46 The Haven Power Market Report is a weekly pricing report that analyses and explains energy market fluctuations over the past 7 days. It’s particularly relevant if you’re buying […]

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By Freddie Rand

Week 46

The Haven Power Market Report is a weekly pricing report that analyses and explains energy market fluctuations over the past 7 days.

It’s particularly relevant if you’re buying electricity flexibly, or about to sign or renew a fixed electricity contract. Getting these decisions right can reduce your vulnerability to price-peaks in the wholesale market and save you money.

This week, we’ve added two new features: a report summary that captures what’s happened in just a few sentences, and an annual power graph showing how the value of an annual power contract changes over time. The annual contract value is the average of the front two seasons, currently Summer 18 and Winter 18.

For a more in-depth analysis from the company’s Flex & Portfolio Management team, speak to Haven Power directly on 01473 707755 quoting reference HP250.

Annual Power Graph

Summary

UK power prices increased in value over the 7 days, making it a bullish week. Gas – the largest element in the UK fuel mix – was the most significant driver, with additional support from continental power, oil and coal. Demand on the national grid this week was at its highest so far this winter, reaching almost 42GW. This was due to cooler weather arriving in the UK and the days getting increasingly shorter.

Seasonal Contracts

Secure and Promote* (Season +1, +2, +3, +4) baseload contracts experienced gains over the course of the week that averaged £0.92/MWh. This is the largest increase in value we’ve seen for a while. The strength of the UK’s NBP (National Balancing Point) gas market was the major driver for the bullish behaviour of the front 4 contracts. In turn, the NBP’s strength resulted from a lack of LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) injections into the UK and North Western Europe systems. Additional upward pressure on electricity prices came from the French power market and unexpected outages at Belgian nuclear plants, along with cooler weather forecast for North Western Europe. Prices peaked on Friday afternoon as gas gains, pulled higher by European coal, continued their influence over UK power.

Prompt/Day-ahead Power

The average day-ahead baseload price was up again last week, at £49.63/MWh. Day ahead prices were at their highest (£51.19/MWh) on Saturday 11th November, when wind output was at its lowest for the week. As expected, the week’s lowest day-ahead prices were on 6th November (£47.70/MWh), when wind output was much higher. This again supports the view that the wind influences short-term power prices.

Imbalance Prices

Single cashout prices over the week averaged £46.61/MWh. No negative price periods occurred last week and Tuesday 7th October saw the maximum price of £117.78/MWh. This is in sharp contrast to the same week in 2016, when system prices were far more volatile and reached a maximum of £1528.72/MWh.

Renewables and other

Average wind output over the week was 6.74GW. Sunday 12th November saw the windiest conditions of the week, with output peaking at 11.71GW. The lowest wind generation was during Saturday 11th November, at just 2.95GW.

If you’re thinking about switching to renewable power, it’s good to know that it can boost employee engagement, attract new customers, and reduce your CO2 emissions. Find out more on the Haven Power website.

*For more information about Secure and Promote, please consult this Ofgem web page.

Disclaimer

Although all reasonable efforts have been made to verify the information in this report and provide the highest possible accuracy, no warranty, express or implied, is given by Haven Power Limited in respect of this information. Furthermore, the provision of this report does not constitute advice of any kind and should not be taken as the basis for any commercial or financial decisions.  Any such decision should be made on the basis of your own records, knowledge and perception of power market data, supplemented with appropriate independent expert advice when required.

This is a promoted article.