Millions of households across the UK are facing a tough choice in the coming months: heating or eating.

The latest report by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr) estimated that in 2022-23 nearly 1.5 million households will see food and energy bills greater than their disposable income.

London and Scotland will be the areas with the highest share of fuel poor people, the study has found.

The authors of the report note that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to further rises in oil and gas prices and inflation.

They said: “From the point of view of the UK, this has acted as a terms of trade shock and as such would be expected to lead to a rise in inflation and fall in output and real income.”

In its UK Economic Outlook report, the Niesr estimates that this year around 11.3 million low income homes will lose around £4.2 billion more than average households.

Last week, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee predicted that customers could see a 40% rise in the price cap in October.