‘Over 20% of global population faces dangerously high temperatures by 2100’

Current climate policies fall short of Paris Agreement goals, with projected 2.7°C warming, leaving two billion lives in jeopardy, according to new study

Current climate policies are set to leave over 20% of the global population vulnerable to dangerously high temperatures by 2100, according to recent research.

Despite the commitment made in the Paris Agreement to keep global warming well below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels, projections indicate that current policies will result in a warming of 2.7°C by the end of the century.

Conducted by a team of researchers from the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter, in collaboration with the Earth Commission and Nanjing University, the study examined the implications of such warming on the number of individuals residing outside the “climate niche” in which our species has historically thrived.

The findings indicate that approximately 60 million people are already enduring hazardous heat conditions, defined as an average temperature of 29°C or higher.

Furthermore, if global warming reaches 2.7°C, an alarming two billion individuals – equivalent to 22% of the projected global population – would face exposure to such extreme temperatures, according to the report.

By limiting global warming to 1.5°C, only 5% of the population would be subjected to dangerous heat, representing a significant reduction in risk compared to the potential impact of 2.7°C warming, the study finds.

Professor Tim Lenton, Director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter, stressed the significance of the human costs associated with climate change, noting, “The costs of global warming are often expressed in financial terms, but our study highlights the phenomenal human cost of failing to tackle the climate emergency.”

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