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Economic outlook – debt, uncertainty and fragmentation

56% of leading chief economists expect weaker global economic conditions in 2025

The global economy is set to face significant headwinds in 2025, with more than half of chief economists predicting weaker conditions.

According to the World Economic Forum’s Chief Economists Outlook, just 17% foresee improvement, reflecting uncertainty across key regions.

The U.S. stands out, with 44% of economists expecting strong growth as Trump takes up his second term, a sharp rise from last year.

However, Europe continues as the weakest region, with 74% expecting slow growth, while China’s economic momentum is projected to falter due to weak consumer demand and slowing productivity.

Global integration faces growing strain, with 94% of economists predicting fragmentation in goods trade over the next three years.

Trade tensions

Trade tensions, protectionism and security concerns are reshaping supply chains and raising costs for businesses and consumers. Companies are responding by restructuring operations, regionalising supply chains and focusing on core markets.

The outlook also highlights a shift in global trade patterns, with 82% expecting greater regionalisation and a continued transition from goods to services. While nearly half of respondents anticipate rising trade volumes, intensifying tensions remain a challenge.

The report underscores the importance of collaboration and strategic reforms to navigate the evolving global economic landscape. With political and economic pressures mounting, fostering resilience and innovation will be key to achieving sustainable growth.

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