Global gas supply to grow 1.4% a year by 2030

Global gas supply is forecast to grow at a rate of 1.4% a year by 2030. That’s according to a new report from data and analytics firm McKinsey Energy Insights […]

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By Jonny Bairstow

Global gas supply is forecast to grow at a rate of 1.4% a year by 2030.

That’s according to a new report from data and analytics firm McKinsey Energy Insights (MEI), which predicts natural gas will represent 23% of the global energy mix by 2030, up from 22% in 2016.

The company expects total natural gas demand to grow in line with supply at 1.4% per annum, expanding from around 3,500 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2016 to roughly 4,300bcm by 2030.

The US, the Middle East and China are expected to account for approximately 70% of this annual increase.

The company expects nearly all liquefied natural gas (LNG) growth to come from new markets, suggesting market risk, demand stability and rapid decarbonisation in these areas could potentially affect demand.

It says through 2022, surplus LNG will drive high-cost, uncontracted production out of the market. US LNG is expected to be at the forefront, competing against Russian imports to Europe and traditional oil supplies in Asia.

However, by 2030, up to an additional 210bcm of new supply will be needed to meet demand – as this will likely be provided by emerging markets to more cost-sensitive customers, MEI suggests price increases are likely to be relatively modest.

James Walker, Gas & LNG Market Analytics Team Lead at MEI, said: “In our latest report, we dive deep into the discontinuities that could really swing the gas markets one way or another.

“For example, in China, the extent to which government targets on gas consumption are met could mean a 100bcm a year variance in global gas demand by 2030. Renewables too have the potential to be a significant disruptor.”