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Flagship Energy’s Tejal Shah Energy Markets Update – 19th June 2024

Tejal Shah, Head of Trading & Risk at Flagship Energy provides a market update

The European and UK gas prices are relatively rangebound as the market continues to consider the risk from increasing competition with Asia for LNG, ongoing heatwaves, and concern over remaining Russian gas into Europe versus ample stock levels, stable supply from Norway and reduced demand due to warmer temperatures. Austria’s OMV has previously warned Gazprom may halt piped shipments amid legal action from third parties that may suspend payments. Payments are usually made on the 20th of the month for the previous months deliveries and therefore all eyes will be on the flow levels. Meanwhile the latest data from ICE shows investment funds are net long on the number of positions in benchmark Dutch gas futures. This is the highest net long position held by investment funds since January 2022, the month before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, highlighting funds have stepped up bets that European gas prices will rise. In other news, the European Union also agreed a 14th package of sanctions against Russia over its war in Ukraine, including a ban on Russian on trans-shipments of LNG, is the first restriction the bloc has applied. However, the measure is expected to have little impact. Although fundamentals are relatively comfortable, supply uncertainty continues to feed the bullish momentum.

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