The war in Ukraine will see the world shift to renewables at a quicker rate.
That’s according to a new report by bp, which estimates that primary energy consumption by 2035 to be 2% lower than last year – as energy efficiency improves.
Countries will look to produce energy domestically, with the war situation leading to energy security worries – which will mean more renewables are used than fossil fuels, the report states.
bp has predicted three scenarios, which all see global energy demands peak within the next 12 years and that oil demand will decline rapidly after 2030.
It sees world demand dropping to between 70 and 80 million barrels per day in 2035, as opposed to the 100 million barrels per day currently.
Its estimations are also based on government’s current energy transition plans and nations that have relied more on energy imports in the past.
The company’s Chief Executive Bernard Looney stressed that this aligns with the company’s desire to start cutting its oil and gas output from 2030 and turn its focus to renewable energy.
bp’s Chief Economist, Spencer Dale, said: “Global energy polices and discussions in recent years have been focused on the importance of decarbonising the energy system and the transition to net zero.
“The events of the past year have highlighted the complexity and interconnectedness of the global energy system. The increased focus on energy security as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war has the potential to accelerate the energy transition as countries seek to increase access to domestically produced energy, much of which is likely to come from renewables and other non-fossil fuels.
“But the events also show how relatively small disruptions to energy supplies can lead to severe economic and social costs, highlighting the importance that the transition away from hydrocarbons is orderly, such that the demand for hydrocarbons falls in line with available supplies.”