Week 48
The Haven Power Market Report is a weekly pricing report that analyses and explains energy market fluctuations over the past 7 days.
It’s particularly relevant if you’re buying electricity flexibly, or about to sign or renew a fixed electricity contract. Getting these decisions right can reduce your vulnerability to price-peaks in the wholesale market and save you money.
For a more in-depth analysis from the company’s Flex & Portfolio Management team, speak to Haven Power directly on 01473 707755 quoting reference HP250.
Annual Power
The annual power graph shows how the value of an annual power contract changes over time. The annual contract value is the average of the front two seasons, currently Summer 18 and Winter 18.
Summary
Last week saw the bullish behaviour of fuels pushing up UK wholesale electricity prices, with colder weather on the horizon influencing the prompt and nearer dated winter products. News of the US tightening oil supplies following the shutdown of a major pipeline to Canada, plus a draw on fuel inventories, added further momentum to rising UK prices.
Seasonal Contracts
Secure and Promote* (Season +1, +2, +3, +4) baseload contracts experienced gains averaging £0.35/MWh over the course of the week. The front season contract (Summer-18) saw the largest increase in value. Bullish coal and gas prices helped strengthen these contracts, while the colder weather forecast for the winter, particularly December, influenced the near curve. Oil prices also saw gains last week with the Brent crude benchmark reaching $63.55 per barrel. The trigger was the shutdown of a major pipeline between Canada and the US, alongside draws on fuel inventories leading to a tightening of supply despite output from US producers increasing.
Prompt/Day-ahead Power
The average day-ahead baseload price was down on last week, at £50.60/MWh. Day-ahead prices were at their peak (£52.73/MWh) on Friday 24th November, when wind generation was at its lowest. This week’s lowest day-ahead prices (£49.34/MWh) were for delivery on Thursday 23rd November, when wind and solar output were greater.
Imbalance Prices
Single cashout prices over the week averaged £51.11/MWh, reaching a peak of £119.81/MWh on 22nd November during settlement period 36 (17:30-18:00). This was due to relatively expensive pumped hydro storage being paid to generate electricity that helped balance the system. There were no instances of negative pricing last week, and the minimum price of £15/MWh was during settlement period 10 (04:30-05:00) on 23rd November.
Renewables and other
Average wind output over the week was 7.73GW, more than 1.2GW higher than last week, clearly highlighting the intermittency of wind. The highest level of wind output was on Saturday 25th November, when it reached over 11GW. In contrast, the previous day had just 3.7GW as the UK experienced calm winds and clear skies – resulting in solar generation reaching a peak of 4GW.
*For more information about Secure and Promote, please consult this Ofgem web page.
Disclaimer
Although all reasonable efforts have been made to verify the information in this report and provide the highest possible accuracy, no warranty, express or implied, is given by Haven Power Limited in respect of this information. Furthermore, the provision of this report does not constitute advice of any kind and should not be taken as the basis for any commercial or financial decisions. Any such decision should be made on the basis of your own records, knowledge and perception of power market data, supplemented with appropriate independent expert advice when required.
This is a promoted article.
