The Haven Power Market Report

Week 50 The Haven Power Market Report is a weekly pricing report that analyses and explains energy market fluctuations over the past 7 days. It’s particularly relevant if you’re buying […]

Register now!

By Freddie Rand

Week 50

The Haven Power Market Report is a weekly pricing report that analyses and explains energy market fluctuations over the past 7 days.

It’s particularly relevant if you’re buying electricity flexibly, or about to sign or renew a fixed electricity contract. Getting these decisions right can reduce your vulnerability to price-peaks in the wholesale market and save you money.

For a more in-depth analysis from the company’s Flex & Portfolio Management team, speak to Haven Power directly on 01473 707755 quoting reference HP250.

Annual Power

The annual power graph shows how the value of an annual power contract changes over time. The annual contract value is the average of the front two seasons, currently Summer 18 and Winter 18.

Summary

Last week, generally bearish fundamentals of fuel supply and increased system margins pushed UK wholesale electricity prices downwards. Milder weather predicted over the next few weeks, and positive Brexit talks, have also reduced the price of nearer dated and seasonal contracts.

Seasonal Contracts

Secure and Promote* (Season +1, +2, +3, +4) baseload contracts lost on average £1.45/MWh over the course of last week, following downward movement in the National Balancing Point (NBP) gas market equivalent contracts. In the next few weeks, the expectation is for milder weather than seasonal norms, reducing potential demand for gas heating. This has resulted in bearish sentiment for gas and power contracts in the near term. The return to service of some French nuclear capacity has added to this trend, since it’s expected to reduce the price differential with the UK and cut UK exports to France. Brent Crude Oil also decreased in price to around $62.40 per barrel, after the US announced a new production record. The EU and Britain’s agreement on a ‘softer’ Brexit than previously mooted had a positive effect on the pound. Sterling reached a six-month high against the Euro, and consequently reduced the price of fuel imports.

Prompt/Day-ahead Power

Wind output – with some support from changes in temperature – was the main driver of day-ahead baseload prices last week. The average value was £54.02/MWh, the maximum £55.40/MWh on Monday, and the minimum £52.76/MWh on Wednesday.

Imbalance Prices

Single cashout prices over the week averaged £57.25/MWh, reaching a maximum of £149.12/MWh on 10th December during settlement period 35 (17:00-17:30). In this period, National Grid paid Connah’s Quay (a gas fired power station) to ramp up production to meet demand. The minimum system price last week was £0/MWh (free electricity!), during settlement period 5 (02:00-02:30) on 07th December – a period of high wind output and zero demand.

Renewables and other

Wind generation was very high last week, with output over 12GW during both Wednesday and Thursday. This happened as Storm Caroline hit the UK and Ireland, providing windier conditions as well as milder weather. However, after the storm passed, the UK turned colder. This coincided with lower wind generation, meaning prices were higher on Saturday than midweek. Average wind output was 8GW, slightly higher than the previous week.

*For more information about Secure and Promote, please consult this Ofgem web page.

Disclaimer

Although all reasonable efforts have been made to verify the information in this report and provide the highest possible accuracy, no warranty, express or implied, is given by Haven Power Limited in respect of this information. Furthermore, the provision of this report does not constitute advice of any kind and should not be taken as the basis for any commercial or financial decisions.  Any such decision should be made on the basis of your own records, knowledge and perception of power market data, supplemented with appropriate independent expert advice when required.

This is a promoted article.