The Haven Power Market Report

Week 47 The Haven Power Market Report is a weekly pricing report that analyses and explains energy market fluctuations over the past 7 days. It’s particularly relevant if you’re buying […]

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By Freddie Rand

Week 47

The Haven Power Market Report is a weekly pricing report that analyses and explains energy market fluctuations over the past 7 days.

It’s particularly relevant if you’re buying electricity flexibly, or about to sign or renew a fixed electricity contract. Getting these decisions right can reduce your vulnerability to price-peaks in the wholesale market and save you money.

For a more in-depth analysis from the company’s Flex & Portfolio Management team, speak to Haven Power directly on 01473 707755 quoting reference HP250.

Annual Power

The annual power graph shows how the value of an annual power contract changes over time. The annual contract value is the average of the front two seasons, currently Summer 18 and Winter 18.

Summary

The UK’s power prices decreased over the course of last week, although Monday bucked the trend as prices rose significantly in the afternoon. The market then moved downwards over the rest of the week, due to lower European coal and gas prices and a decline in oil prices arising from increased production in the USA.

Seasonal Contracts

Secure and Promote* (Season +1, +2, +3, +4) baseload contracts experienced losses averaging £0.25/MWh over the course of the week, with Summer-18 dropping around 45p/MWh. Weaker prices on the country’s NBP (National Balancing Point) gas market –  pushed down by heavy losses on oil and coal – were to blame.

In addition, the Brent Crude Oil benchmark weakened over the last week. This was due to an increase in reported US production volumes and in spite of OPEC (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) making further promises to extend its own production cuts to support prices. While the week’s losses have been significant, prices remain at a premium compared to the end of October. This suggests that the market has priced-in the risk of cold weather having an impact later in the winter. (NBP and power contracts are particularly sensitive to temperature changes in the near curve, due to the lack of effective gas storage following the closure of Centrica’s Rough facility.)

Prompt/Day-ahead Power

The average day-ahead baseload price was up again from the previous week, at £51.40/MWh. Day-ahead prices were at their highest (£53.5/MWh) on Tuesday 14th November, when wind output was relatively low. The week’s lowest day-ahead prices were for delivery on Saturday 18th November (£49.30/MWh). Wind output was over 8GW for much of the day and peak demand was particularly low, at 40GW.

Imbalance Prices

Single cashout prices over the week averaged £47.23/MWh. No negative price periods occurred last week, and the maximum price of £120.93/MWh was achieved on Wednesday 15th.

Renewables and other

Average wind output over the week was 5.5GW, 1.2GW less than last week – almost the equivalent of two Drax biomass units being taken offline! The highest wind output of 9.2GW occurred at around 8am on Saturday 18th; and Wednesday 15th provided the least windy conditions. During the solar peak at midday on the 15th, solar production outstripped wind (at 0.5GW).

*For more information about Secure and Promote, please consult this Ofgem web page.

Disclaimer

Although all reasonable efforts have been made to verify the information in this report and provide the highest possible accuracy, no warranty, express or implied, is given by Haven Power Limited in respect of this information. Furthermore, the provision of this report does not constitute advice of any kind and should not be taken as the basis for any commercial or financial decisions.  Any such decision should be made on the basis of your own records, knowledge and perception of power market data, supplemented with appropriate independent expert advice when required.

This is a promoted article.