Major shifts in the global energy landscape, particularly related to electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable generation, mean global carbon dioxide emissions will plateau by 2030.
That’s according to data and analytics specialist McKinsey Energy Insights (MEI), which forecasts by 2030, 20% of global car sales will be EVs, rising from 3% in 2020.
The report says renewables are likely to take almost all the growth in global power generation through to 2050 and predicts it will become more economic to build renewable capacity than operate existing gas- or coal-fired power plants within a decade.
It suggests this will trigger further declines in fossil-fuel power plant use, with solar and wind growing up to 10 times faster than gas.
Despite these green developments, MEI warns increased global energy demand is likely to mean emissions will remain at more than double the level required for international climate obligations.
Ole Rolser, Associate Partner and Solution Leader at MEI, said: “Despite the significant momentum around EVs and renewable energy sources taking an increasing share of the power market, energy-related emissions remain flat from 2030 to 2050.
“To realise the 2°C pathway scenario, we’d have to see much broader, much more disruptive change than what we’re seeing now.”