Fossil fuels set to peak by 2030

The International Energy Agency’s report contrasts with OPEC’s view, marking the first time peaks in oil, natural gas, and coal demand are visible this decade

Global demand for fossil fuels is expected to peak before 2030, as revealed in a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The IEA’s analysis suggests that the dominance of fossil fuels, including coal, oil and natural gas, is gradually waning, with cleaner energy alternatives gaining ground.

The IEA’s report provides a stark contrast to the perspective held by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which foresees continued growth in oil demand well beyond 2030 and advocates for substantial new investments in the oil sector.

The IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook suggests it marks the first time that peaks in oil, natural gas, and coal demand are projected to be visible this decade, primarily due to the influence of current government policies.

For decades, fossil fuels have been the primary drivers of the global energy supply, collectively accounting for approximately 80% of the world’s energy sources.

However, the IEA’s latest Sustainable Transition Scenario (STEPS) portrays a different narrative.

It forecasts a steady decline in the share of these fossil fuels, reducing it to 73% by 2030.

While this shift is significant, it may still fall short of meeting the stringent climate goals required to combat global warming, according to the report.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said: “The transition to clean energy is happening worldwide and it’s unstoppable. It’s not a question of ‘if’, it’s just a matter of ‘how soon’ – and the sooner the better for all of us.

“Governments, companies and investors need to get behind clean energy transitions rather than hindering them.
“There are immense benefits on offer, including new industrial opportunities and jobs, greater energy security, cleaner air, universal energy access and a safer climate for everyone.
“Taking into account the ongoing strains and volatility in traditional energy markets today, claims that oil and gas represent safe or secure choices for the world’s energy and climate future look weaker than ever.”

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