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UK ‘faces 2028 energy security crunch’

Independent analysis predicts UK will face an energy security "crunch point" in 2028 due to increased demand, asset retirements and delays in new power generation

New analysis commissioned by Drax Group and conducted by Public First suggests that the UK’s energy security may face a significant challenge by 2028.

The study highlights a potential “crunch point” where the demand for power could surpass the available secure dispatchable and baseload capacity by 7.5 gigawatts during peak times.

According to the research findings, this scenario is anticipated due to a combination of factors including a surge in energy demand, the retirement of existing energy assets and delays in the completion of critical projects like Hinkley Point C.

Such a shortfall would likely lead to a heightened reliance on intermittent sources of power, both domestically and internationally.

The analysis underscores a narrow margin between total energy supply and peak demand over the next five years, with the situation becoming particularly acute by 2028.

The impending T-4 Capacity Market Auction, responsible for securing sufficient power-generating capacity, is facing its tightest margin between target and actual generation in the past decade, according to the report.

To address this looming crisis, the report proposes extending the utilisation of existing baseload generation assets, including nuclear plants and implementing transitional arrangements for biomass operators.

Additionally, the report recommends initiatives to curb peak demand through flexible measures and improved home insulation.

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